And the forecasting effect of the exponential smoothing estimation method is very well . in the thesis , i combine the predict theory and the business cycle theory . through examination , confirm the model that predict accurately 本文创新之处在于将经济预测模型引入到景气理论中，并经过实证检验，确定了预测效果较为突出的模型。
We bases the research harvest of loading forecast , classify and filter the methods of forecast in domestic and overseas literatures , summarized a series of methods that aim at different aims 我们根据多年来在负荷预测方面的研究成果，对国内外文献中的预测方法进行了归类研究和筛选，总结出了一系列针对不同预测目的的具有较好预测效果的预测方法。
It has been shown in practical application in the tahe oil field that this kind of processing technology brings good prediction effect in an area in which bp network has not predicted with extremely ideal effect 通过塔河油田实际资料应用表明，在单独使用bp神经网络进行储层类型预测效果不是十分理想的情况下，采用这种处理技术，能够取得较好的效果。
In the end , this paper examine the forecasting performance of arch type models for the weekly shenzhen stock market volatility . the results suggest that arch type processes driven by stable distribution is more effective than the others 最后利用arch类模型预测了深证成指的周波动性并比较了预测效果，结果表明了基于稳定分布的arch类模型的预测效果优于其它模型。
The time - predicting model constructed on the basis of neural network has been put into practice on system in this thesis and the ratio of error was less then 3 % , which would be a good result and indicated that the aim of saving energy could be reached perfectly 本文利用神经网络建立的时间预测模型对系统作了预测，预测误差小于3 ，预测效果良好，能够实现节能的目的。
The assessed results show that the prediction effect of artificial neutral networks model is better than that of multivariate nonlinear regression model , as well as the forecast effect of subsection model for water content of crude oil is better than that of united model 评价结果表明：神经网络模型预测效果优于多元非线性回归模型，原油含水率分段预测模型效果优于统一模型。
Finally , the small computing load and error , and the better estimation effect can be obtained when sampling frequency is more than 4hz and sliding window is between 10 and 20 and polynomial exponent equals 3 or 4 by the computer - based simulation 最后通过计算机仿真说明在预测海上舰船运动时要求采样频率大于4hz ，滑动窗大小取10 20 ，多项式为3或4阶时计算量和误差较小，预测效果较好。
On the algorithm of market rate prediction , this article adopts the sequence prediction model based on genetic algorithm bp neural network , and receives better estimation effects , and builds the experimenting platform of data mining using the j2ee technique 在营销指标预测算法上，本文采用基于遗传算法的bp神经网络时间序列预测模型，取得了良好的预测效果，并采用j2ee技术建立了数据挖掘实验平台。
Finally , by comparing with the predicting results of 5 engineering examples , the prediction results of compertz curve equation are proved to be better and more stability than other methods , and the prediction method of multi - model is feasible 通过对5个工程实例的预测比较，证明龚帕斯曲线方程有很好的预测效果，有较好的稳定性，可用于工程实践；同时也说明多模型的预测方法和判别标准是符合实际的。
In the paper , traffic flow data of dalian city is predicted by applying such neural network . experimental results show that intelligent neural network has higher astringency rate and precision , and has greater advantages than bp network 实验结果表明由这种智能神经元组成的神经网络具有更高的收敛速度和精度，预测效果远远优于常规bp网络，达到实测路况交通流预测所需精度及收敛速度，具有较高实用价值。
