It is proved that the semi - analytical prediction method makes the model has a better prediction precision , a better generalization ability and a lower dependence on the number of samples by using matlab tool 通过仿真分析,证实了应用半解析方法进行预测时,模型的预测精度更高,泛化性能更强,对样本的依赖程度更低,并具有更好的长期预测能力。
After shanghai stock index and shenzhen stock index since 1997 being analyzed , the method intelligent recognizes some rules of essence trends of stock markets and forecasts essence direction of stock markets , not only short - time but also long - time 对1997年以来的沪深大盘指数进行了实证分析检验，识别出了市场基本趋势的演化规律，显示出该方法具有长期预测市场发展方向的能力。
O ) has the advantage of overcoming the limitation of linear tren li1 city water demand and the variety of calculate value of 1ongtfor forecasting . based on it , nonlincar chan8e in sinlulating value is ptheented and higher simulating prpeision as well as bethe prediction effect can be attained 其中gm （ 1 , 1 , ）法较好的克服了需水量变化呈线性和长期预测计算值发散性的局限，使拟合值的变化呈非线性，从而取得较高的拟合精度和预测效果。
In the other way , traffic models play an important role in network traffic prediction and design . a good traffic model can help us to keep the status of the network and to control sudden evens in the net work . usually different kinds of the models have 目前有许多的研究者对网络流量建立不同的数学模型,针对不同的应用有着不同的功能,如对网络作短期预测的数学模型,以及时的控制网络的突发风暴,对网络作长期预测的数学模型,有利于网络的长期维护和长远的发展。
( 5 ) another is the long - term predict utilizing the biggest index number lyapunov in the chaotic time series and the whole space method during the steady period of the road foundation load , after the overload of the road foundation finished . meanwhile , contrasts with some mature settlement predict methods , estimating some important section in the engineering synthetically , making sure an ideal outcome of the predict warp , then unload the overload of road foundation and make it satisfy the design request ( 5 )路基超载完成后，在路基荷载稳定期间内，利用混沌时间序列中的最大lyapunov指数和全域法进行长期预测，同时与一些比较成熟的变形预测方法进行对比，对工程中一些重点断面进行综合评判，确定一个较理想的预测结果，从而对路基超载进行卸载，使其满足工程设计要求。
Based on sample of the index from april 3 , 1991 to may 31 , 2001 , arima models have been built with tsp computer software guided by route of " from general to specific " . the models built have better fit goodness and one point forward prediction is highly precise . but ultra - sample prediction by c + + program shows prediction precision reduces fast as the length of prediction grows , long term prediction of the index is impossible 建模表明利用tsp统计软件结合从“一般到特殊”的建模方法，所建的模型对已有数据的拟合较好，向前一步单点预测准确性较高，但利用c语言程序进行进一步分析表明时间序列分析模型对深圳成分指数的长期预测效果明显降低。
Further , in light of the mathematic functions among price , efficiency and equity , the effects / impacts of water pricing methodologies on efficiency and equity in water resources reallocation have been analyzed , the results are that different pricing methods have distinguish impacts on efficiency for water resources uses while they have few impacts on equity for incomes due to reallocation of water resources . fourthly , because the regional water resources have some features of river basin , an integrated water resources management ( iwrm ) has been suggested for the efficient management of regional water resources , where the basic criteria and intensions of iwrm have been analyzed . in order to the iwrm for regional water resources , the enabling environments , the institutional roles and the management instruments will be needed 再根据交易中的水价与效率及公平性关系的数学模型，分析不同的水价制定方法对水资源再分配(水权交易)的效率与公平性影响，提出的不同的定价方法对水资源使用效率有显著影响，而对公平性基本没有影响；针对区域水资源具有流域特征的实际情况，提出了区域水资源综合管理( iwrm )的模式，分析了iwrm的基本原则和包含的内容，进行了为实施iwrm的关键措施和体制安排，要实现区域水资源的综合管理就必须具有宽松的环境、充分发挥管理机构的作用和灵活运用先进的管理手段；根据区域水资源的特点和可持续利用原则，进行了区域张仁田:区域水资源可持续利用研究水资源开发利用战略方针的研究，按照制定的19项战略方针，对一特定的区域进行了不同水用户水资源需水量的中、长期预测，其中包括生态环境需水量，并采用iqqm模型进行供需平衡分析，提出在工程设施保证、技术措施和体制及法律保障到位的情况下，远期能够实现供需平衡。
Early at the end of the twentith centmp , a long - term prediction about l world traveling development has been announced by wto ( world travei organization ) . they said f in 2020 , china will become the biggest reception country of world tourism , and the annual number of international travelers will amount to l30 mllion . also by that time , china will become the no . 4 biggest international tourist source nation , l 00 million chinese will stfide out our naton 早在20世纪末，世界旅游组织( wto )关于世界旅游发展的长期预测报告就已指出，道2020年，中国将成为世界国际旅游的第一大接待国，年接待国际旅游者将超过1 . 3亿人次，届时，中国还将成为世界第四大国际旅游客源国，将有亿万中国人迈出国门。
Now many managers are quite familiar with the production , while they are strange to the capital management . they are not good at deciding on the productive strategy and capital inflow according to the long trend of market . so many resources are laid out and wasted . the notion of capital management emphasizes on installing all kinds of productive gradients , such as capitau land ^ technology through market machanism . this notion will help the managers change their thoughts and methods to market economics . it will also influence the development of enterprises very deeply . so , in my paper make a research from several aspects below : the definition of capital . the argument about capital focuses on the problem that , it is the capital of productive gradient , or the capital of social relation . in the eyes of entrepreneurs , capital is used to produce fortune , make profit , prosper the economics , and push the social development 目前，许多企业管理者对企业的生产经营了如指掌，对资本运营则较为生疏，不善于根据市场的长期预测，决定企业的经营战略和资本流动方向，致使企业资源在闲置和凝固中浪费和损失。资本运营理念强调要将资金、土地、技术等一切生产要素通过市场机制进行优化配置，即要将一切资源、生产要素在资本最大增值的目标下进行结构优化。这一经营理念对于企业的经营者将思考问题、解决问题的思路和方式转到市场经济上来有着重要意义，对企业的发展将产生深远的影响。
