Company founder is the outstanding youth , senior securities analysts , investment finance expert and successful life consultants liuxinghui in portfolio investment , real estate investment , other industries project management , business consulting experience and a good reputation 公司创办人是全国优秀青年、资深证券分析师、投资理财专家、成功人生咨询顾问刘星辉,在证券投资、房地产投资、其他产业项目管理、创业咨询等多方面拥有丰富的经验和良好的口碑。
First , i did an empirical research of chinese security analysts ’ predicting ability . the sample data is a 72 weeks ( 2003 . 11 . 30 - 2005 . 6 . 17 ) stock recommendation data from the “ chinese stock newspaper ” . the results reveal that there is an remarkable positive abnormal return of the chinese analysts ’ stock recommendations before these recommendation went into public , but the abnormal return after those recommendation went into public is unremarkable or even negative 研究结果显示,中国证券分析师推荐的股票在公开推荐以前就存在显著的正的异常收益,反而在推荐公开以后无显著的异常收益甚至出现负值;牛市气氛下证券分析师推荐股票的盈利能力明显高于熊市气氛;券商类机构证券分析师推荐股票的异常收益明显高于独立咨询机构。
There are many valuation models such as cdf , eva model , p / e model and p / b model etc . there is one common character of these models that is the input data of these model is all financial information . however , financial analyst usually estimated different value of the same stock using different models and the estimated value was different from the actual market price . what is the reason lead to this result 各种股权估值模型都有一个共同的特点,即模型的输入变量为公司财务信息,但根据不同的模型,证券分析师估出的股票价值都不一样,而且跟市场实际价格往往也有很大的差距,那是什么样的原因导致这种差距呢
On the one hand , we find that security analysts " recommendations can neither lead to abnormal returns nor influence price fluctuation . on the other hand , we use risk - adjusted profit to test the funds " performance persistence and find that funds can not beat the market without favorite treatment , such as subscribing ipo shares . their performance is affected by market 第六章通过对证券分析师荐股行为的研究，一方面发现证券分析师的荐股并非是从个股的基本面理性分析，而是主要根据个股的前期走势，结合证券分析师的羊群效应，说明分析师行为不理性。
A good research paper must write by an excellent analyst . so it is important to improve chinese analysts ’ business quality to promote their predicting ability . secondly , i analyzed the development of the regulation of chinese analysts and compared it to that of american analysts 通过中美证券分析师监管规范的对比发现中国证券分析师制度在规范制定的严格性、规范的详细程度以及规范对于现实情况的更新方面需要进一步加强,监管规范的进一步完善是有效提高证券分析师预测能力的前提。
There is another approach . utilizing the basic theory of return and risk and the main methodologies and models of asset valuation , we can study the implied risk premium from the current share prices by incorporating stock analysts " forecast on companies " earnings and growth . by comparing the implied risk premium with the actual risk level of the particular investment , we can decide better whether its valuation is fair 在主要投资价值分析方法和分析模型基础上，本文换了一个角度，从风险收益基础理论出发，研究利用更符合实际的三阶段估值模型，结合证券分析师对企业赢利和未来增长的估计，测算证券定价背后隐含的风险回报水平，通过考察风险补偿率是否与该投资面临的风险水平相匹配，来更好的解决证券定价合理评判这个问题。
Accounting earnings is the key index in all accounting information , which not only reflects the past outstanding achievement , but also forecasts the growing prospect of listed companies combined with other indexes . after the publication of annual financial reporting of listed companies , investors usually evaluate the achievement of different companies by accounting earnings index when they select objects in numerous listed companies . in securities market , legislation and administration institutions value and supervise the whole course from coming into the market to exiting from the stock market by earnings index . recognition of the stock listed company , the confirmation of issuing price , absorbing new capital from market , st and pt , which have osculation connections with earnings index 另一方面,在实践中,会计盈余指标业是应用频率非常高的财务要素,证券分析师和投资者大多会采用这一指标来评价不同公司间的业绩,并预测其未来的发展前景。而在证券市场的监管上,立法、行政机构也是广泛使用会计盈余指标对公司从招股上市到摘牌下市的全过程进行评价和监督,其中股份上市公司的认定、上市发行价格的确定、上市公司的再融资、股票交易的特别处理、暂停上市和摘牌等都与盈余指标有密切的联系。
Then i analyzed the affecting factors of chinese analysts ’ predicting ’ ability through analyzing security analysts ’ research papers and their regulation . firstly , i compared the research papers of the analysts from chinese companies to that of analysts from foreign companies . and i found out that there exist some problems such as lack of some important target data , lack of the instructions of the method use in the research papers , special instruction of the objectivity and legal responsibility of the research papers is insufficiency 通过对中外资机构证券分析师研究报告内容的对比发现中国证券分析师研究报告中还缺乏一些重要数据指标、一般未能说明预测数据的计算方法和数据资料的来源、在研究报告的客观性和法律责任的特殊声明方面还存在严重不足,这些不足反映出我国证券分析师执业素质离成熟市场水平的差距,中国证券分析师执业素质的增强是提高证券分析师预测能力的必要条件。
The predicting ability of security analysts is one of their most important abilities , the study of it has important theoretical and practical significance in guaranteeing security analysts ’ independency , impartiality and efficiency , preventing the manipulation of stock prices and helping the security analysts in maintaining the efficiency of the markets 证券分析师预测能力是其执业能力的体现,通过对证券分析师预测能力的研究,对于保证中国证券分析师独立、公正、有效地进行分析,防范股价操纵,发挥证券分析师在维护市场效率中的作用有着重要的理论意义和现实意义。
