In the author ' s view , individuals should undertake part of the social securing cost . meanwhile , the author also puts forward some useful means to help find the optimism investment portfolio finally , the essay brings up a series of proposal which are useful to the operation of social securing fund based on the correlated theories and foreign countries " experience in the operation of the social securing fund 其次，在遵循公平与效率原则下，运用线性回归模型预测我国社会保障基金的需求量与供给量，并与基金实际收入进行比较，结合我国养老保险、医疗保险现采用的“统账结合”部分积累基金筹集模式，认为个人应该承担一定比例的社会保障费用，并且通过资产组合理论为寻找最佳投资组合提供方法。
Abstract : the generalized shrunken prediction of finite population is introduced , using generalized shrunken least squares estimator of linear regression models . with respect to prediction mean squared error , a necessary and sufficient condition for superiority of a generalized shrunken prediction over the best linear unbiased prediction is obtained . in the case of linear combination of every unit index , a linear restricting prediction is introduced and then a necessary and sufficient condition for superiority of linear restricting prediction over the best linear unbiased prediction is devived 文摘:利用线性回归模型的广义压缩最小二乘估计，引入了有限总体的广义压缩型预测，在预测均方误差意义下，得到了广义压缩型预测优于最佳线性无偏预测的一个充分必要条件；在只能得到每个个体指标的线性组合时，引入了一种线性约束型预测，并得到了线性约束型预测优于最佳线性无偏预测的一个充分必要条件
The part using the data of population agglomeration degree and labor amount of three industries , according to the econometrics principle , constructs the multi - variable linear regression model for each of the 31 provinces , municipalities and autonomous regions " so as to find out the realistic relationship between city and industrial development all through the country 文章根据全国以及全国31个省、直辖市和自治区的城市人口聚集度与三次产业从业人员的数据关系运用计量经济学原理一一构建了多元线性回归模型，以揭示我国各地区的城市发展和产业结构的实际关系，并得出一系列结论。
Using spss , a statistic analysis software , the paper develop and calibrate generalized liner accident regression model for three type of roads , including two motor vehicle lanes and two non motor vehicle lanes , two lane road with road marking and two lane road without road marking 利用spss统计分析软件,建立并标定了横断面为双车道对向车道间有标线车道与硬路肩之间有标线有标线道路、双车道对向车道间有标线道路和双车道对向车道间无标线道路的事故广义线性回归模型。
On the basis of collecting and processing many datum and materials . firstly . this paper analyzes main activities and cost constitutions of each stage of the life cycle of a fcs , and lay a foundation for later analysis and evaluation of system lcc . secondly , a basis method and usage range for estimating the system lcc are introduced . a multivariate linear regression model of pcs development cost and cost driven factor is built by use of the parametric method and supplies the base of cost estimation of newly - developed systems . thirdly , combine actual examples and make statistical analysis of lcc of a certain pcs developed by our institute , predict unhappened usage and service cost with grey prediction method , obtain proportion of each constitute to the lcc . forthly , according to actual conditions , use the fuzzy theory to overall evaluate efficacy of the fcs , fifthly , combimng our actual conditions , investigate specific measures of how to implement the life cycle cost management in our institute and put forward a new conception of developing web - based flight control system lcc management information system with pdm as the platform . at last , investigate important factors such as reliability and maintainability that may affect the life cycle cost of the fcs in detail , and put forward specific methods of lowering the life cycle cost of the fcs 论文在收集和整理大量资料的基础上，首先深入分析了飞控系统寿命周期各阶段的主要活动以及各阶段的费用构成，为以后系统寿命周期费用的分析和评价奠定了基础；其次，介绍了寿命周期费用估算的基本方法和使用范围，并利用参数法建立了飞控系统研制费用与费用驱动因子的多元线性回归模型，为新研系统的费用估算提供了依据；第三，结合实例对我所研制的某型飞控系统的寿命周期费用进行统计分析，运用灰色预测方法对未发生的使用及维修费用进行预测，得出了该系统的寿命周期费用以及各组成部分所占比例；第四，根据实际情况，首次运用模糊理论对飞控系统的系统效能进行了综合评价，构造了飞控系统系统效能模糊综合评价模型；第五，结合我所实际，探讨了如何在本单位实施加强寿命周期费用管理的具体措施，提出以pdm为平台，开发基于web的飞控系统lcc管理信息系统的新构思；最后，对影响飞控系统寿命周期费用的重要因素如可靠性和维修性等进行了详细地研究，提出了降低飞控系统寿命周期费用的具体方法。
The equations of the mean value functions and the covariance functions are established for dynamical systems whose inputs are fuzzy stochastic processes . an existence and uniqueness theorem of ito fuzzy stochastic differential equations is proved , some explicit representations of solutions and the equations of statistical characteristics are deduced for linear fuzzy stochastic differential equations , and numerical methods to nonlinear fuzzy stochastic differential equations are proposed , the conditions for stability and observability of fuzzy linear systems are derived . the kalman filter algorithms of linear fuzzy stochastic systems are brought forward 主要成果包括：提出了模糊随机变量协方差和反向协方差的概念；研究了二阶模糊随机变量的均方收敛性，并在此基础上得到了均方模糊随机分析、平稳模糊随机过程及其谱分解的若干定理；根据均方模糊随机分析理论，得到了输入为模糊随机过程的线性系统的输出输入统计特征关系方程；证明了ito型模糊随机微分方程解的存在唯一性，并给出了ito型线性模糊随机微分方程解的表达式，统计特征方程以及非线性模糊随机微分方程的数值解法；得到了模糊线性系统的稳定性和可观性条件、线性模糊随机系统统计特征方程和线性模糊随机系统的kalman滤波算法；研究了当观测值是模糊数据时，线性回归模型的建立。
So the management has taken some technical reco nstruction and formed a linear regression model of the killing oxygen by adding aluminum process with history data . however , it is just an empirical formula , which cannot take the real time , disturbance and randomness at the spot into account . so the fitting accuracy and forecast of this model are not perfect and it is difficult to design the automatic control system about killing oxygen by adding aluminum process and achieve accurate control 为此，厂方经过了一些技术改造，通过历史数据建立了定氧加铝工艺的一个线性回归模型，该模型仅仅是一个经验公式，无法顾及具体现场中的实时性、扰动性和随机性等诸多因素，故该模型拟合精度和预测情况是不理想的，这就给定氧加铝自动控制系统的设计带来一定的困难，也难以实现精确的、理想的控制。
