On the macro - economic aspect , consumer credit can en1arge the total demands of a country and make the economy increase fastel consumer credit derived from l8 - l9th century in the western developed countries such as america and british , and developed widely and fast after worid war ii . consumer credit has played an important role in the economic growth 因此，研究信用消费具有重要的理论意义。现代信用消费18 、 19世纪左右在西方国家兴起，发展十分迅速，目前已经成为西方发达国家主要的消费方式，占社会消费总额的30以上，对于扩大消费需求、拉动经济增长发挥了重要作用。
Macro angle the comprehensive evaluation index of economic development finds the difference between regional sustainable developments ; micro angel is from the social production object and social consumption object ' s effecting on economy to set up the index , and by evaluating the effect of index , to reflect in detail the principle factors that influence the regional economy 宏观角度即经济可持续发展的综合评价指标，通过综合评价找出区域间经济可持续发展存在的差距；微观角度即从社会生产主体和社会消费主体对经济可持续发展的影响来构建指标体系，通过影响指标体系的测度，比较详尽的反映影响地区经济可持续发展的主因子。
We have combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to foresee the market size . firstly , we found the relative factors influencing the truck market through qualitative analysis and picked up several main factors by quantitative analysis , such as highway mileage , social fixed assets investment capital and consumption expenditure , etc . secondly , we set up four models by using those factors . the four models are a time series model , a multiple regression model , a factor regression model and an integrated model 首先,通过定性分析找到了影响我国载货汽车保有量的相关因素,接着又进一步进行定量的分析,从而确定了公路里程数、基本建设固定资产投资额和我国社会消费支出额等为主要影响因素;然后,利用前面的分析结果构造了三个模型,即时间序列模型、多元回归模型和因子回归模型,并综合几个模型的优点建立了一个综合的预测模型,这一部分也是全文的重点部分;最后,分析比较了各模型的优劣并给出了每个模型的适用情况。
