The methods of forecast the public transportation strategy : " maercofu " and it ' s deformation are put forward on the basis of analyzing the history public transportation data . the methods of forecast the public transportation o - d is make out : it is on the basis of the figure of the transit passengers get on and get off the bus on the spots 首先提出了马尔可夫链法及其改善方法，这一方法是根据历史调查数据结合定性分析，建立各交通方式之间的转移概率矩阵，预测现行的客运交通发展战略所产生的未来的客运交通方式结构，以分析公交发展策略的改善方向。
For the difficulty of getting transition probability matrixes in various directions in markov chain models , the paper presents a method to figure out it , which makes getting transition probability matrixes of different neighborhood systems of markov chain models easier and more feasible 摘要针对在油气储层随机模拟中马尔可夫链模型的不同方向的转移概率矩阵求取困难的问题，提出一种二维剖面中不同方向的转移概率矩阵求取方法，这种方法的提出使得不同阶次的各向同性和各向异性的邻域系统的转移概率矩阵的求取变得容易可行。
Then , according to the fact that the series - parallel systems and parallel - series systems made up of many components have complicated state space and transfer - probability matrix , some new concepts are introduced . on the basis of these concepts , the author classifies the complicated state space well - organized , describes the structure of the state space and gets the quantity relation of each state . thus , a ration description for compound system state - transferring diagram is obtained which greatly reduces the analyses and operation complexity 文中在总结了分析这些系统可靠性的基本理论和方法后，针对由多个部件组成的一般串-并联系统和并-串联系统具有复杂的状态空间和转移概率矩阵这一现实，引入了一些新的概念，并依据这些概念对复杂的状态空间进行了有层次的分类，刻画了状态空间的结构，给出了各类状态之间的数量关系。
At the same time , to the discussed systems , the author studies the element classification and the structure relation of systems " transfer - probability matrix under the circumstance of a repairable equipment . especially , the author brings forward a method - matrix growing to describe the change of transfer - probability matrix and gets the change law of transfer - probability matrix when some components of a system have changed 同时，针对所讨论的系统，在一个修理设备的情况下，研究了系统转移概率矩阵的元素分类和矩阵的结构关系；特别是引入生长矩阵的概念描述转移概率矩阵的变化，并给出了当系统的某些组成部分发生改变时，系统转移概率矩阵的变化规律。
In chapter four this paper proposes a kind of imm algorithm which uses many kinds of models and does some simulations ; a kind of imm algorithm based on time - varying markov transition probabilities matrix is introduced and simulated ; based on the two algorithms above , a new modified imm algorithm which merges many kinds of models and time - varying 在第四章中本文提出了一种使用多种机动运动模型交互的imm算法并作了仿真;介绍了一种基于时变马尔可夫转移概率矩阵的imm算法并作了仿真;在此基础上提出了一种改进的imm算法,算法结合使用多种运动模型及时变马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,仿真结果表明其获得了对高速高机动目标较好的跟踪性能。
This paper studies the random transferring of the yield of chinese treasury security by markov model , firstly concluding that the dynamics of the yield of the treasury security obeys the markov model , secondly estimating the matrix of probability of transferring by historical data , lastly making an predicting of the future trend of the yield 本文采用马尔可夫链对中国国债收益率的随机转移性质进行了研究，首先用x ~ 2统计量验证了国债收益率的运动过程符合马尔可夫链，然后运用历史数据估计出转移概率矩阵，最后对国债收益率的未来走势进行了预测。
