Mathematics statistic model of the main observation variables and horizontal displacement hybrid model of typical monolith of huangtankou concrete gravity dam are established . through model analysis and parameter inversion , taking into account of water level and temperature , deformation monitoring control index of typical monolith is determined by the improved method of probability . the primary contents are as follows : 1 建立了黄坛口混凝土重力坝主要观测量的数理统计模型和典型坝段水平位移混合模型等，通过对各数学模型的分析和参数反演，综合考虑水位温度采用改进小概率法拟定了典型坝段水平位移的监控指标，得到一些有益的结论，其主要内容如下： 1
The sequence and activity characteristics of shuikou reservoir induced earthquake are analyzed with several methods , such as probabilistic evaluation , comprehensive effect parameter e evaluation , two - step comprehensive fuzzy evaluation , the maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes evaluation , etc . . the results show that the shuikou m ( subscript l ) 4 . 1 earthquake on april 21 , 1996 is a main - earthquake , and from now on , the possibility occuring m ( subscript l ) > 3 induced earthquake in shuikou reservoir area is low 摘要应用概率法、综合影响参数预测法、两级模糊评判法、古登堡里克特公式外推预测法等对水口水库诱发地震序列以及活动特征进行了研究，认为： 1996年4月21日发生的m (下标l ) 4 . 1地震为水口水库诱发地震主震，今后库区发生大于3级以上诱发地震的可能性较小。
Abstract : based on analysis of the dam ' s structural mechanics beh avior and its observed displacement data , this paper has applied typical low prob ability method and hybrid method to study the safety monitoring index of horizon tal displacement of guitian river first stage dam in order to ensure dam safety 文摘:在对古田溪一级大坝结构力学特征及位移观测资料进行研究分析的基础上，为确保大坝安全，提出用典型小概率法和混合法拟定古田溪一级大坝水平位移变形安全监控指标
The advantage is that in view of the actual mobile telecom market of yz city during the research we comprehensively adopt many scientific market research methods such as questionnaire , data analysis method , depth interviews and subjective probability then use the spss to analyze the data to get plenty of valuable market information . the advice we offered can be profitable strategic reference when the mobile telecom company set down their marketing policies on market development and product development 突出的地方在于结合yz市移动通信市场实际情况，科学地采用了分层抽样方式，综合运用了问卷法、资料分析法、主观概率法和深度访谈法等调查方法，使用了spss软件进行统计分析，从而获得了丰富的较有价值的市场信息，并从市场基本战略的角度提出针对性的策略建议，为运营商进行市场和产品开发及市场战略的制定提供有益的参考。
