The research bases on the three major sides : stochastic mechanics of engineering , reliability analysis and the design method of reliability . the paper establishes the stochastic element method and the reliability optimal model . the reliability of platform , based on the stochastic element , was calculated 本文围绕目前海洋工程中不确定问题的概率分析中包括的三大方面：工程随机力学、工程的风险评估和可靠度分析、基于可靠度理论的设计方法，进行了研究，建立了海洋平台随机有限元可靠性模糊优化模型。
In this article we make a survey on financial security degree of capital movement in china , which rests on probability analytic method in the economic security research and carries on several capital movement index commonly used in foreign 摘要本文采用经济安全研究中的概率分析法，并运用国际通用的资本流动指标对我国资本流动的金融安全程度进行了整体测算，结果是一方面， 1995 - 2004年我国资本流动的金融安全度较好，状态界定为基本安全；另一方面，资本流动运行中也存在潜在的金融安全问题。
The paper introduces the financial risk conceptions and theories , then discusses the recognition and analysis of financial risk of enterprise . the paper analyzes the method against the business enterprise financial risk in detail , including strategy and system . on the basis of experiences internal and external , the paper designs an early warning system structure , breach system and model of financial risk that meets the concrete characters of our country ' s enterprise , and puts forward some relevant counter measures for establishment of early warning system for our country ' s enterprise financial risk , which is the emphasis and difficulty of the paper 论文首先介绍了有关企业财务风险的概念、理论，然后论述了企业财务风险的识别和分析，如杠杆分析法、概率分析法、财务报表分析法等，接着论文详细分析了企业财务风险防范的方法，主要探讨了企业财务风险防范的策略，财务风险的制度防范，论文借鉴国内外财务预警系统建立的经验，设计了适应我国企业具体特点的财务风险预警系统的结构与子系统，提出了建立企业财务风险预警系统的相关对策，这是本文的重点和难点。
In chapter 2 , a sort of genetic algorithm based on estimation range is presented . by the means of probability analysis , the convergence area of the optimal result can be estimated . in this way , the search range can be shrinked > the search precision can be improved and the quality of result can be ameliorated 本文针对优化设计中的智能方法进行了研究，在本文的第2章，提出了一种基于区间估计的遗传算法，应用概率分析，通过对最优解的收敛区间进行估计，缩小了搜索范围，提高了搜索精度，最优解的质量有所改善。
Based on the facts in our country , this paper raised that the method of probability should be used in electrical tractor system . and at the same time , the main problems and availableln of this method . based on matlab , the model of probabilistic method and monte carlo simulation in superposition multi - harmonics sources are compared 与此同时，探讨了目前国内外对该问题处理所使用的方法的局限性和缺陷，针对本国的电牵引系统的实际情况，提出了在电牵引系统的多谐波叠加中使用基于中心极限定理的概率分析方法，指出针对高次谐波运用该方法的可靠性和对低次谐波不能有效模拟的原因所在。
The pictures of probabilistic characteristic in both sides of impendence matching balance transformers are drawn , and probabilistic density figures are also given . the simulation model of shaoshan 4 electrical tractor is raised , at the same time facing the restriction of probabilistic method , the paper raised that using monte carlo simulation absorbed harmonics currents of the model of electrical tractor and simulated the superposition of low harmonics currents . through compared with real time data , the monte carlo simulation can be confirmed , and the breakthrough point of restriction of using probabilistic method is discussed 为了有效模拟机车在运行中所产生的谐波电流，本文在matlab的平台空间中建立了韶山4型电力机车的仿真模型，导入到matlab运算程序中，对低次谐波电流叠加进行模拟，从而证实了蒙特卡罗模拟法仍然是目前较为可靠可行的方法，同时讨论了在电牵引系统中针对低次多谐波源叠加使用基于中心极限定理的概率分析方法必须使用相关参数进行修正，即需要和电力机车的带电运行方式有机的结合在一起。
Based on the theory of probabilistic analysis of power systems , this paper studies the computer realization methods for commitment risk and response risk in generation systems . by using these methods , this paper focuses on the research of unit commitment , allocation and distribution algorithms of spinning reserve , considering the reliability requirement of generation systems . corresponding heuristic algorithm is given in this paper 本文根据发电系统可靠性的概率分析理论，研究了发电系统中投运风险度和响应风险度的计算机实现方法，在此基础上，重点讨论了结合可靠性分析的机组组合方案、旋转备用容量的确定和分配方案，并给出了相应的启发式算法。
