As a capital controlled country , china has had also a great deal of capital flight since 1990 . although no financial crisis has ever occurred in china , the issue of capital flight will be a hidden trouble in the future development of economy 现有的研究表明,中国作为资本管制国,自上世纪90年代以来也存在相当规模的资本外逃现象,尽管中国并没有由此而爆发相应的金融危机,但是,资本外逃终究是威胁未来中国经济稳定发展的重大隐患。
Hitherto , capital controls have been providing the much - needed insulation of monetary stability from the risks of financial globalisation , while enabling the mainland to benefit from the substantial inflow of direct investment and foreign funds to benefit from the attractive returns 内地实行资本管制，一方面使货币体系免受全球金融一体化风险的冲击，因而得以保持稳定，另一方面又能吸引大量流入的直接投资以及为海外资金赚取可观回报
According to the iron law of open economy , so - called " impossible trinity " , china adapted a fixed exchange rate , relatively strict capital control and highly independent monetary policy , which meant to give up some degree of monetary policy independence in exchange for limited capital flows 在开放经济的“三元冲突”中，中国选择了固定汇率、较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性，即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动。
Basing on the traditional m - f model and combining the situation of china , we introduce a modification of the m - f model which is more closed to chinese economic environment , and conclude that , in this occasion , our monetary policy is lack of efficiency , while the financial policy is more effective under the relative fixed - exchange rate system and strong capital control 本文根据传统的蒙代尔?弗莱明模型理论，结合中国国情，引入了更符合中国经济环境的m ? f修正模型，通过模型的理论推导，认为在相对固定的汇率制度和较强的资本管制条件下，我国货币政策效率较低，而财政政策效率较强。
Model analysis shows that relaxation of the control of investment capital will increase the unfavorable balance of international payments and the correcting difficulty of the excess commodity supply in the market at home ; relaxation of speculative capital control will increase the correcting difficulty for outer unbalance ; under the springy exchange rate system , the action of fair mechanism of interest rate will make the economic shock of the international market interest rate increase with the decrease of the capital control system , thus the over regulation of exchange rate will easily happen 模型分析显示：投资性资本管制放松会增大国际收支逆差和国内商品市场超额供给的矫正难度，投机性资本管制放松会增大外部失衡的矫正难度；弹性汇率制下，利率平价机制作用使国际市场利率变化的经济冲击随资本管制度降低而增强，更易发生汇率超调。
Eight distinguished speakers , including professor ronald mckinnon of stanford university , professor michael dooley of university of california , santa cruz , dr morris goldstein of institute for international economics , professor eisuke sakakibara of keio university , dr bijan aghevli of chase manhattan bank , mr glenn stevens of reserve bank of australia , dr ross mcleod of australian national university and mr scott roger of international monetary fund , gave their views on important regional and international issues , including movements in the yen exchange rate , the effectiveness and impact of capital controls in asian economies , and the evolution of the international financial architecture 我们很荣幸邀得位知名讲者在研讨会上发表意见，他们分别为史丹福大学的教授圣克鲁斯加州大学的教授国际经济学院的博士庆应义塾大学的原英资教授美国大通银行的博士澳洲储备银行的先生澳洲国家大学博士及国际货币基金组织的先生。他们就多个重要的地区和国际性问题发表意见，包括日圆汇率走势亚洲若干经济体系实施资本管制的成效与影响以及国际金融架构的蜕变等。
The course of rmb convertibility under capital accounts is accompanied with the economic and financial reform . the environment inside and outside is changing ceaselessly accompanied with the advance of the reform , the system of capital control is confronted with more and more stress , the validity of capital control is inevitably affected . therefore , we should scan the validity of capital control and adjust the control policy in the course of the reform , maintain moderate and effective capital control , it is a significant issue needing attention and research in a long term 中国的资本项目可兑换进程是伴随着经济金融改革同步进行的,随着改革的推进和经济开放程度的提高,内外经济环境不断地发生着变化,资本管制体系面临着越来越大的压力,资本管制的有效性不可避免地受到了很大的影响。因此,在人民币资本项目可兑换的进程中审视资本管制的有效性,在改革过程中适时适度地对管制政策进行调整,保持适度和有效的资本管制,是一个需要长期关注和研究的重要课题。
According to the experiences with capital account liberalization in different countries , capital account liberalization and capital inflows surging in developing countries can promote the financial development ; meanwhile the economy in developing countries faces more and more indefinitude . the asian financial crisis in 1997 , the financial turbulence in brazil and russia in 1998 , the financial crisis in argentine in 2001 , and the financial crises occurred in emerging market countries more frequently , seem to prove that , the stability of financial system in quite a few countries faces severe challenge , accompanying with the process of capital account liberalization . then , how could developing countries carry out the progress of capital account liberalization to ensuring the financial system stability 对于具有相对健全的金融体系的国家来说,资本账户开放有助于一国金融体系效率的提高和金融体系规模的快速扩张,能够减轻乃至消除资本管制的巨大成本,推动国内金融市场的进一步深化;但随着资本账户的开放,国际资本流动带来了巨大的负外部性,使一国宏观经济和金融体系中不确定性增加,将对一国银行体系资产负债规模和结构产生负面影响,使本国金融市场更易受到波动,并且增加金融部门系统性风险,加大了金融监管的难度,这会对脆弱的金融体系形成冲击。
However , from other economic variables , such as exchange rate , interest rate and inflation rate , exp capital flight , we can easily see that underground currency substitution is existed . therefore , we can resort to the stable macroeconomic polices , esp liberation of interest rate , to avoid side - effects of currency substitution 于是，研究我国货币替代的相关情况及政策，对于我们在逐步放松资本管制的条件下，降低货币替代对国内经济的不利影响，具有非常重要的实践意义，这也正是本文第五章所着重分析的问题。
