At first , this thesis analyzed some essential elements about the system of personal houe loan and make the compare to chinese and foreign system , and established the system of personal credit evaluate ; the second , the thesis discusses the investment technique and strategy of national debt in the provident fund , and established the model about how to invest the national debt ; the third , the thesis build the forecast model about fund collecting and drawing , and make use of the combination invest theories to build model of individual loan and national debt ; at last , the thesis analyses the risk ' s inside reason of house funds with the risk type , and to give out the related suggestion to funds risk . mechanism . the thesis research show me how to make use of that some models and methods in the process of haf management and make me deeply understand the house funds 本文首先分析了个人住房贷款制度基本要素，即贷款期限、贷款利率与抵押物价值的比例、政府在个人住房贷款市场中的作用、贷款违约情况下的处置措施、个人住房贷款的流动性问题，并对中外制度作了比较，建立了个人信用评分评级体系和信用评估模型，并以重庆市住房公积金为研究对象做出了住房资金个贷风险评估的实证研究；其次，分析了影响国债价格走势的因素，讨论了公积金国债的投资技巧和策略，并建立了基于理论的国债投资组合模型；接下来，根据资产负债管理理论中的资金总库法和资金分配法分析了公积金总体资金项目的来源和运用，并就此作了总量平衡模型，对住房公积金季度累计归集金额作了直线回归和季节趋势比率预测，运用投资组合理论建立了公积金个人贷款和国债投资组合的最优化模型；最后，探析了住房资金风险的内在原因和风险类型，从资金筹集风险、信贷回归风险、保险机制、法律风险和政策风险五个方面为住房资金风险防范机制建设提出了相关建议。
Using this model , we analyze the trend of housing price and many other hot spots . this paper finds that if the investment in real estate development were to keep the same increment speed as nowadays in the future , supply would exceed demand and the mean housing price would go down , then appropriate increment speed of the investment in real estate development is calculated 利用本文的模型分析了商品房平均价格走势等热点问题,指出:如果房地产开发投资始终保持2000年以来的增长速度,必将出现商品房供大于求,商品房平均价格下跌的局面,并依据本文的模型计算出了比较适当的房地产开发投资增长速度。
