It was the first time that the central economic affairs meeting adopted the concept of “ business cycle ” to analyze and judge the state of macro - economy , and thus put forward new tasks for the studies on the business cycles in our country 本文在吸收国内外近年的研究成果基础上,通过定性研究与定量研究相结合的方法对我国转轨时期经济周期波动进行分析。
The business cycle index ( bci ) can availably reflect the economic cycle fluctuation , and is widely used in the world . for the sake of connecting with the world , our country need to establish our own bci 景气指数是目前世界上使用较为普遍的一种反映经济周期波动的指标，随着我国与世界各国的经济交流日益加深，为了与国际接轨，我国也需要建立相应的景气指数。
At last , it expatiates the relationship of economic cycle fluctuation and real estate cycle fluctuation , on side , their operation orbit almost tally , but on the other side , there are deviation and time difference 本节的最后阐述了经济周期波动和房地产周期波动的关系，房地产周期波动是经济周期波动在房地产行业的表现形态，两者在运行轨迹上基本一致，但另一方面又存在背离和时差。
At present , there seems a extensive study on inner system of business cycle , but study on the industrial cycle , which always fluctuate the business cycle , especially on the business cycle fluctuation of real estate industry is ignored much even as a plank space 目前研究经济周期波动内在机制的较多，对于构成经济周期波动的产业周期研究还存在不少空白，其中对房地产经济周期波动的研究更是较少涉及。
My study on the cycle of the real estate industry in this paper consists of four parts as follows : in the first part of this paper , i include and summarize and review the main opinions concerning the cycle of macro economy and the cycle of the real estate industry 依据这样的思路，本文由四部分组成，各部分主要内容、观点及创新如下：第一部分，总结、归纳和评述有关经济周期波动与房地产周期波动的理论。
Chapter two accounts for the three classical theoretical models of the business cycle , in this chapter , more details are given on the importance of the main economic variables ? investment and saving which can make economy fluctuate accordingly 第二章主要是对三个经典的经济周期模型进行了较为详细的说明和论述，这一章较为详尽的分析了经济系统中主要的经济变量，如投资、储蓄等变量对经济周期波动所起的重要作用。
Although there has been skepticism as to the comovement among the advanced economies from the experience of the early 1990s , in contrast with the 1970s and 1980s , there is a clear correlation between advanced and developing economies and among asian economies 虽然根据上世纪九十年代以来的经济数据显示发达国家的同步性波动比七十、八十年代减弱，但发达国家与发展中国家之间以及亚洲国家之间的经济周期波动显示出比较清晰的正相关关系。
Macroeconomic fluctuation impact on the companies " earnings significantly , therefore the business cycle fluctuations will affect the companies ’ asset value fluctuations . according to morton ’ s asset value model , if the asset of company is less than a specified threshold value , the company ' s 结合我国金融体制改革,得到结论是,中国的金融压抑和信贷配给再加上政府对银行经营活动的控制,造成了违约率循环和经济周期波动项之间的同向关系。
