The paper also analyzes the stability of the initial evaluation to the comprehensive evaluation , gets the tolerance interval where the result of the model remains , and ensures the reliability of the model ' s application 为了考察模型的稳定性，本文分析了初始评价对于综合评价结果的稳定性，得到了保持最终评价结果不变的初始评价可以被容忍的出错范围，从而保证了模型结论运用的可靠性。
In the normal fuzzy evaluation model , the rule of absolute dominance ensures only the majority can prevail , and the concept of " diversification degree " reflects how the initial evaluation is diversified among the experts and makes improvements in the evaluation system 在模糊综合评价模型中，本文在绝对优势判别准则中引入了分散度概念，使得最终结果不但克服了少数胜出的情况，同时也涉及初始评价的分散状况，使得综合评价结果更具科学性。
Synthetical methods were used to develop an index of comprehensive assessment after flood . firstly , we reviewed the literature extensively and conducted a widely epidemiological investigation on the flood impact on economy , environment , and human health in hunan province , p . r . china after severe flood disaster in 1998 . based on the literature review , epidemiologic investigation , and the theory of analytic hierarchy process ( ahp ) , the initial evaluation system of flood impact was established , which include six first rank indicators and seventy - four second rank indicators . an expert panel consisted of 30 specialist was convened and delphi process was used to screen and determine all the indicators and their importance ( weight ) 本研究选择经常遭受水灾的湖南省为研究现场，在深入调查的基础上，广泛参考文献，综合考虑灾后引起的直接伤亡、疾病发病率的升高、超额死亡、疫源地扩大和病原媒介的滋生蔓延、精神刺激及心理影响、经济损失等诸多方面，应用层次分析法的思想，以洪灾危害程度为总的评价目标，构建包括上述六个方面的6个一级指标和74个二级指标的洪灾危害程度初评指标体系。
