This paper is an application research on evaluating the schedule risk of project by monte carlo method with the software excel . therefore it has certain reference value for the research and practice of project schedule risk evaluation , especially for the risk evaluation of the project whose work times are random 本文是通过计算机软件excel来实现蒙特卡罗模拟技术在项目进度风险评价方面的一次应用研究，因此它对项目进度风险评价的研究和实践具有一定的参考价值，尤其是在评价活动时间为随机型项目的进度风险时，它具有相当的参考意义和经济价值。
To demonstrate this , this essay adopts the statistics of those overseas tourists visiting guizhou province between 1990 and 2000 . the statistics is then processed by the following analytic measures to predict the tourist market : the floating per capita , the index smooth and line return . in this way , a prediction is made of the number of overseas tourists who would visit guizhou province in 2001 , with a contrast between the predicted number and the real data of the tourists 本文采用贵州省1990 - 2000年接待入境旅游人数的统计数据，运用旅游市场预测的定量分析方法：移动平均数预测法、指数平滑预测法、线性回归预测法，分别预测了2001年贵州省入境旅游人数，并同2001年的实际统计数据相比较，论证了不同的旅游市场类型(趋势型、季节型、稳定型、随机型)应采用不同的预测方法，并就其预测结果进行了误差分析，西部旅游产业发展战略探讨从而得到了最佳的预测方法。
