Projections based on the predictions of gcms , including cccm , giss , cgcm2 and hadcm3 models , provided information on future climatic conditions , and then water temperature in the future can be predicted accordingly 在研究中利用cccm 、 giss 、 cgcm2以及hadcm3等大气环流模式提供未来气候变迁之下的气候资料，进行未来气候条件下的水温仿真。
Because the system error is ineluctable for mode , it is necessary to correct the simulation fielde effectively . in this paper , based on the idea of combined eof correction , the interannual simulation of sea surface wind stress anomalies of the tropical pacific ocean by lap two - level atmosphereic model have been corrected , result of corrected erperiment shows that the corrected field is more similar to the observation field , especially on the distribution of the space . three prediction experiments also shew that correcting scheme of combined eof can improve the interannual prediction veracity of model 在本文中，基于“联合自然正交展开误差订正”的思想，将中科院大气物理研究所两层大气环流模式输出的热带太平洋海表风应力异常的跨年度模拟场进行订正，订正试验的分析结果表明，订正后的热带太平洋海表风应力距平场与相应观测场年际变率分量的相似程度远远好于模式模拟的结果，尤其是在空间分布方面的改善非常显著；三组跨年度订正检验结果也表明，订正后的跨年度预测结果明显好于模式的预测结果。
Ii ) we organize the parallel computing of ' the third generation ocean general circulation model from the chinese institute of atmosphere physics ( lasg / iap ) , and we also apply several parallel optimization strategies including multi - overlapping - boundary . the parallelism is implemented both on distributed memory and shared memory parallel computers , based on the spitting of latitude zones . this parallel ocean general circulation model is the first one in china 11 )发展了国内第一个高效并行海洋环流模式:深入研究了中国科学院大气物理所第三代海洋环流模式，分析了其串行计算特点和并行可扩展性，指出了其计算方法上存在的对并行计算的某些限制，对该模式组织了有效并行计算，并成功应用了包括多重叠边界在内的若干并行优化方法，在国产小型mpp系统和sgioriginzoo 。
To meet the practical requirements for distributed - memory parallel computing of numerical forecasting models , we study on the parallel characteristics of spectral element and finite difference methods . on this basis , we develop fast and parallel computations for three meteorologic models , including 2 - d shallow water equations , the new generation multi - scale weather forecasting model and the ocean general circulation model 本文从气象预报数值模式分布式存储并行计算的实际需要出发，着眼于谱元素方法和有限差分的并行计算性能，研究了二维半隐谱元素浅水波模式、中国科学院大气物理研究所第三代海洋环流模式和中国新一代多尺度预报模式等三个气象预报模式的高效并行计算，设计实现了相应的应用软件。
Based on the observation data such as coads and soda , the main climatological features of the tropical indian ocean and relationships of sea surface temperature ( sst ) , heat budget with ocean dynamics and thermodynamics processes are analyzed ; the seasonal and interannual variability of the tropical indian ocean are well simulated using a ocean general circulation model ; based on the thermal equation and model output data , the variation mechanism of sst and heat budget are investigated in the tropical indian ocean ; besides , the effect of seasonal variation of wind stress , ekman pumping and horizontal diffusivity on the ocean current and heat budget are studied , using both ideal model and complex model 本文根据coads 、 soda等实际观测资料，较全面的分析了热带印度洋主要的气候特点，并研究了海表面温度( sst ) 、热收支与海洋动力、热力过程的联系；利用全球海洋环流模式较好地模拟出热带印度洋的季节和年际变化；基于热力学方程和海洋环流模式输出结果，探讨了热带印度洋sst和北印度洋热量收支的季节和年际变化机制，进一步揭示了海洋动力过程在北印度洋热平衡中的重要作用；在此基础上，利用理想化的数值试验与数值模拟结果相结合的方式，证实了风应力的季节变化和ekman抽吸，以及水平热量扩散系数对北印度洋海洋环流和热收支的影响。
( 3 ) on parallel computing of the third generation ocean general circulation model from lasg / iap i ) we present an optimization model by multi - overlapping - boundary for parallel explicit integration with finite difference discretization , and point out that the gap between speed of network and cpu makes it a practical technique . we compare the parallel characteristics of spectral element and finite difference from the point of view of communications , communication - to - computation ratio and scalability ( 3 )关于中科院大气物理研究所第三代海洋环流模式的高效并行计算? )基于对有限差分离散的分析，提出了一个面向显式时间积分并行计算的多重叠国防科学技术大学研究生院学位论文边界优化模型，指出了网络速度与处理器速度间的落差使得采用冗余计算取代部分通信成为一种具有相对优势的实用技术。
All these results confirm the important of wind in meridional circulation and heat transport . based on mom2 model , a rectangular basin model with ideal w ind stress and other ideal conditions is designed to study the main processes and dynamical mechanism in setting the depth of cross - equator flow . the effects of horizontal diffusivity , seasonal variations of 我们还通过全球海洋环流模式，进一步证实了风应力的季节变化在北印度洋热收支、 sst以及海洋环流变化中的作用:即包含风应力的季节变化将使长期平均的sst降低，海面净热通量增加。
This thesis is divided into two parts , the first part is the design of the correcting scheme of combined eof for wind stress anomalies simulation field on surface of tropical pacific of lap general circulation model . the second part is . the correcting and exam of the tropical pacific wind stress anomalies for two - level general circulation model 本论文分为两部分：第一部分为针对iap两层大气环流模式输出的热带太平洋海表风应力异常的模拟场设计的误差订正方案，第二部分为对热带太平洋海表风应力异常的模拟场进行订正试验及订正检验。
In order to study the anomaly pattern of summer rainfall in north china and the cause responsible for the anomaly , the climate characteristics of summer rainfall in north china and related circulation pattern , water vapor transport and outgoing long - wave radiation ( olr ) were analyzed in detail in this paper . more attention was paid on studying the relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly ( ssta ) over the north pacific and summer precipitation anomaly in north china and an agcm was utilized to confirm the affection of ssta on the summer rainfall of the north china 为了揭示华北夏季降水异常规律及其成因，本文详细分析了华北夏季降水的气候特征及有关的环流特征、水汽输送特征和向外长波辐射( olr )特征，着重研究了北太平洋海温异常与华北夏季降水异常的关系，并应用大气环流模式初步验证了北太平洋海温异常对华北夏季降水的影响。
