Groundwater environment prediction methods , especially the establishment of prediction model and its utilization in reality , has increasingly been attached importance to and studied in recent years . in this paper , firstly , the problems existing in the present groundwater environment and their contributing factors were simply analyzed , the principle and the general procedure of groundwater environment prediction were then put forward , and the methods most in use in water environment macroscopic prediction were briefly introduced 地下水环境预测方法，特别是预测模型的建立以及在实际中的运用是近年来受到广泛重视的研究领域。本文在该领域作了多方面的探索，文中首先分析了目前地下水环境方面存在的问题及产生的原因，并对造成这些问题的机理进行了简单分析，提出了地下水环境预测原理及一般程序，简要介绍了目前在水环境宏观预测方面常用的方法，供进行地下水环境预测参考。
According to state - of - the - art of evaporation duct propagation research , and to meet the demands on the prediction techniques of evaporation duct environment and the assessment of radar performance under evaporation duct environment , this dissertation gives a thorough research in depth on the subject described above . the researches include the prediction theory of evaporation duct and its applications , the theory of ray tracing based on which the prediction of radio wave rays are conducted and its application to the predicting of radar range performance under a given evaporation duct , and the characteristics of tropospheric ducts over china 根据上述情况，结合我国尽快得到蒸发波导环境预测技术及在其中运作无线电系统的性能预测技术等需求，本文针对蒸发波导传播及其相关应用这一热点难点问题较深入地研究了蒸发波导环境预测技术的理论及其应用、蒸发波导环境中雷达探测性能评估所要求的基本理论之一? ?射线描迹技术及其在代表性蒸发波导环境中雷达探测性能评估技术方面的应用和我国应用所需的我国大气波导环境特性等几个方面。
Thirdly , the conclusions of the two aspect applications are given as follows : the exploration of the application of the evaporation duct prediction to the flux relationship research and evaporation duct predicting shows that based on this predicting method and with microwave refractometer , as sensor , ( 1 ) the dimensionless gradient function of temperature , humidity and refractivity in the flux relationships can be determined with higher precision , ( 2 ) the limitations of conventional observations on the predicting accuracy for evaporation duct can be avoided and the precise prediction for evaporation duct can be obtained with the accurate measurement of refractivity profile within a few meters . the radar performance under given evaporation 三、对两个应用问题的讨论表明：基于本文发展的蒸发波导预测理论，使用微波折射率仪为传感器： ( 1 )开展通量关系研究时，可以用于边界层温度、湿度和折射率无量纲梯度函数的精确测定和得到蒸发波导环境预测所需的伪折射率参数化函数关系； ( 2 )预测蒸蒸发波导环境特性和传播特性及其应用研究发波导环境时可以避免使用传统气海界面要素测量中存在的局限，并用折射率音d面不太高的精确测量结果精确预测蒸发波导环境。
