Based on the theory of inverse analysis in mechanics and engineering and combined with the concrete gravity dam of manwan hydro power plant , a back - analysis model including the prior information was built and artificial neural network ( ann ) , according to which powerful nonlinear mapping ability , was used to predict the future physical parameters of the concrete 在此基础上，以大规模有限元分析软件ansys为平台，二次开发了漫湾水电站砼重力坝运行状态分析系统，根据大坝运行监测资料，对该电站大坝进行了砼力学参数反分析、砼力学参数预测分析以及大坝运行状态分析。
Consequencely , the analysis and assessment system of the operating state of the concrete dam was developed under the ansys development environment , and the back - analysis and the prediction of the parameters of the dam system have been done according to the operating observed data . the research work involves several aspects as follows : 1 ) a back - analysis model including the prior information and a predictive model of nonlinear time series were established ; 2 ) the analysis and assessment system of the operating state of the concrete dam was developed under the ansys development environment , in which the analysis module of the loading effects , the back - analysis module , the forecasting module of the physical parameters and the assessment module of the operating state were contained ; 3 ) according to the operating observed data , the operating state of the dam was assessed and predicted with the analysis system of the operating state , the results suggested that the dam is in basically normal operation at present 具体工作有以下几方面： 1 )收集整理漫湾水电站大坝运行监测资料，并对其进行了系统分析，从观测资料本身直观的分析了大坝的运行状况； 2 )总结位移反分析的理论及方法，建立了考虑先验信息多介质位移反分析模型，基于神经网络非线性映射功能，建立了神经网络时间序列预测模型； 3 )以ansys软件为平台，开发了漫湾水电站砼重力坝运行状态评价模块，结合荷载效应分析、参数反演分析、参数预测分析三个模块组成漫湾水电站砼重力坝运行状态分析系统；实现了对漫湾水电站运行状态的动态“反演-预测”分析； 4 )利用漫湾水电站砼重力坝运行状态分析系统，在漫湾大坝实测资料分析、大坝砼特性参数反分析、大坝砼弹性模量衰变规律及预测分析的基础上，系统的分析并预测了大坝运行状态。
